Options Probability Calculator

With the current market volatility now is a good time to brush off those options strategies. My personal favorite is the Iron Condor which is made by using a bear call spread and bull put spread. With the Iron condor we are looking to sell time and volatility. We look to sell options with a > 75% chance of expiring worthless. The Options Probability Calculator will help you determine which options have a > 75% chance of expiring worthless. In the coming weeks I will be releasing my report of how I trade Iron Condors. It is an eight step check list for opening and closing the spreads each month. Let me know if you would like a copy.

2 thoughts on “Options Probability Calculator”

  1. To increase the accuracy of the options probability calculator you could add to user-input fields for Estimated Price Appreciation (per annum) and Expected Dividend Yield.

  2. The Options Probability Calculator had me stumped for a while. The web page says “you will see a green band in the middle of the bell curve. This band represents the area where we have calculated the stock will most probably trade over the life of the trade”. I changed my call and put strikes and the green band changed!
    Try entering ‘price 10, days 30, vol 25, call 11, put 9), then change to ‘call 11.5, put 9.5’ and watch the green band move. Obviously my trades make no difference to the expectation, then I realised that it should say ‘the bell curve represents the trade area”. The green band then shows where your vulnerability lies. Just make sure that they are down towards the lower extremities of the bell curve.

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